Clinical Predictors of Relapse in Lupus Nephritis: Focus on Baseline NLR, Treatment Pattern, Histological Class V, and EBV Reactivation

 

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Clinical Predictors of Relapse in Lupus Nephritis: Focus on Baseline NLR, Treatment Pattern, Histological Class V, and EBV Reactivation

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Mari
Hara
Mari Hara mari.nomura0420@gmail.com Kurashiki central hospital Endocrinology, and Rheumatology Kurashiki, Okayama Japan *
Kazuki Orita ko18251@kchnet.or.jp Kurashiki central hospital Endocrinology, and Rheumatology Kurashiki, Okayama Japan -
Yudai Koshida yk19131@kchnet.or.jp Kurashiki central hospital Endocrinology, and Rheumatology Kurashiki, Okayama Japan -
Kohei Yo ky16534@kchnet.or.jp Kurashiki central hospital Endocrinology, and Rheumatology Kurashiki, Okayama Japan -
Yuri Nishida yn18495@kchnet.or.jp Kurashiki central hospital Endocrinology, and Rheumatology Kurashiki, Okayama Japan -
Takumi Nagamoto tn18194@kchnet.or.jp Kurashiki central hospital Endocrinology, and Rheumatology Kurashiki, Okayama Japan -
Hiroyuki Murabe hm8058@kchnet.or.jp Kurashiki central hospital Endocrinology, and Rheumatology Kurashiki, Okayama Japan -
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Lupus nephritis (LN) is a major cause of morbidity in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), and relapse accelerates chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression. Conventional markers such as complement and anti-dsDNA antibodies often fail to predict flares. Epstein–Barr virus (EBV), which establishes lifelong latency in B cells, has been implicated in SLE pathogenesis and may trigger reactivation. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been associated with SLE activity, but its prognostic value in LN remains unclear. This study aimed to identify relapse predictors focusing on baseline NLR, treatment pattern, histological class, and EBV-DNA elevation as a potential marker of viral reactivation.

We retrospectively analyzed 109 biopsy-confirmed LN patients treated between 2006 and 2024 at Kurashiki Central Hospital. Baseline characteristics were recorded, and 62 with complete data including NLR were evaluated for relapse risk. Patients with poor adherence were excluded. Relapse was defined as disease reactivation requiring intensified immunosuppression; renal relapse as recurrence of proteinuria ≥1 g/day, hematuria, or elevated creatinine. Comparisons used the Mann–Whitney U and Fisher’s exact tests. Relapse-free survival was assessed using Kaplan–Meier and Cox regression by NLR, treatment type (steroid monotherapy vs combination), and histology (class V vs others). EBV-DNA elevation was analyzed as an exploratory endpoint.


Among 109 patients, 62 were eligible for relapse analysis (53 female, 85.4%). The mean age at onset was 39.5±20.1 years. Over a median 5.6-year follow-up, 16 (25.8%) relapsed, including 8 renal relapses (12.9%). In multivariable Cox analysis, class V histology (HR 2.12, 95% CI 0.59–7.58), steroid monotherapy (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.11–2.54), and NLR (HR 1.06, 95% CI 0.83–1.34) were not significant. The model concordance was 0.59, and assumptions were met (GLOBAL p = 0.153). Among the 24 patients tested for EBV-DNA (23 female), 4 were EBV-DNA positive. In this subgroup, 12 patients (50%) experienced relapse, including 7 with renal relapse and 6 with extra-renal relapse. Flare-free survival was shorter with EBV-DNA elevation (median 1,195 vs 5,966 days; p = 0.361), suggesting a possible link between viral reactivation and flare.


None of the factors independently predicted relapse. However, trends toward higher relapse risk with class V histology, steroid monotherapy, and EBV-DNA positivity may indicate biological relevance. The limited sample size, heterogeneous backgrounds, and temporal treatment changes likely reduced statistical power. Larger multicenter studies are needed to validate these findings and clarify the role of EBV reactivation and inflammatory markers in LN relapse. No independent predictors were confirmed, though class V histology, steroid monotherapy, and EBV-DNA positivity tended to increase relapse risk. Combining inflammatory and virological markers may improve individualized relapse prediction in lupus nephritis.


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