The impact of hemoglobin change trajectory on the risk of cardiovascular events and mortality in hemodialysis patients

 

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The impact of hemoglobin change trajectory on the risk of cardiovascular events and mortality in hemodialysis patients

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Shengzhuo
You
Yang Li li.yang1@zs-hospital.sh.cn Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University Nephrology Shanghai China -
Yafei Chen chen.yafei@zs-hospital.sh.cn Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University Nephrology Shanghai China -
Xiao Tan tan.xiao@zs-hospital.sh.cn Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University Nephrology Shanghai China -
Xiaoqiang Ding ding.xiaoqiang@zs-hospital.sh.cn Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University Nephrology Shanghai China -
Shengzhuo You youshengzhuo2001@163.com Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University Nephrology Shanghai China *
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

This study aimed to characterize the global longitudinal trends and local fluctuation patterns of hemoglobin levels in hemodialysis patients during treatment and to investigate the impact of hemoglobin change trajectories on the risk of cardiovascular events and mortality.  

This retrospective cohort study included patients receiving hemodialysis at Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China, between 2015 and 2025. Hemoglobin levels were longitudinally collected at multiple time points, and participants were prospectively followed for the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality. Latent class growth modeling (LCGM) was used to identify distinct hemoglobin trajectory patterns, while variability independent of the mean (VIM) was calculated to quantify short-term fluctuations. The associations between hemoglobin trajectory patterns and the risks of MACE, mortality, and the composite endpoint were evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models.

A total of 699 patients were included in the study cohort. The mean age at enrollment was 57.5 years, and 63.8% were male. Three distinct hemoglobin trajectory patterns were identified: Trajectory 1 was characterized by persistently low hemoglobin levels (<100 g/L) throughout the observation period; Trajectory 2 exhibited an initial increase followed by a rapid decline; and Trajectory 3 showed relatively stable levels, with a mean range of 105-110 g/L. The overall VIM for hemoglobin fluctuations was 0.11%±0.05%. Univariate analysis revealed that advanced age, baseline anemia, inflammatory status, hyperkalemia, and other clinical factors were significantly associated with membership in Trajectory 2 and higher VIM values. The median follow-up duration was 5.6 years. During this period, MACE occurred in 252 patients (37.7%), and all-cause mortality in 178 patients (26.6%). Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that Trajectory 2 was independently associated with increased risks of MACE (adjusted HR = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.16-3.46) and mortality (HR = 3.29, 95% CI: 1.66-6.51). Similarly, patients in the highest quartile of VIM (Q4) had significantly elevated risks of MACE (HR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.58-3.48) and mortality (HR = 1.79, 95% CI: 1.13-2.84). In the additive model, the combination of Trajectory 2 and high VIM (Q4) conferred the greatest risk, with the highest incidence rates and hazard ratios for all outcomes.

The "first rise, then drop" hemoglobin trajectory and high-level fluctuations are independently associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in hemodialysis patients. These findings suggest that hemoglobin management should not be limited to achieving target levels at isolated time points, but should prioritize the long-term stability of hemoglobin concentrations to improve clinical outcomes.

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