THE KIDNEY FAILURE RISK EQUATION CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION ACROSS DIVERSE POPULATIONS: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

 

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https://storage.unitedwebnetwork.com/files/1099/ba87d9d5bf2c2d36b8f0f574bab2f11c.pdf
THE KIDNEY FAILURE RISK EQUATION CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION ACROSS DIVERSE POPULATIONS: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

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Xavier E.
Guerra-Torres
Xavier E. Guerra-Torres xguerra@sescam.jccm.es Hospital General Universitario Nuestra Señora del Prado Section of Nephrology and Hypertension Talavera de la Reina Spain *
Iván Arenas Moncaleano igarenas@sescam.jccm.es Hospital General Universitario Nuestra Señora del Prado Section of Nephrology and Hypertension Talavera de la Reina Spain -
Jorge Luis Morales Montoya jmmontoya@sescam.jccm.es Hospital General Universitario Nuestra Señora del Prado Section of Nephrology and Hypertension Talavera de la Reina Spain -
Maribel Monroy Condori mmonroy@sescam.jccm.es Hospital General Universitario Nuestra Señora del Prado Section of Nephrology and Hypertension Talavera de la Reina Spain -
Mauricio Miranda Cam chinocam@gmail.com Hospital General Universitario Nuestra Señora del Prado Section of Nephrology and Hypertension Talavera de la Reina Spain -
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a public health concern affecting approximately 10% of the global population. It is associated with multiple cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular complications, and with increased risks of death and hospitalization. The burden of CKD is rising and is projected to become the fifth leading cause of death by 2040. To improve assessment, monitoring, and referral to nephrologist, several tools have been developed to predict progression to kidney failure. Among them, the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) has demonstrated excellent discrimination and can accurately predict kidney failure risk across diverse CKD populations. This systematic review synthesizes evidence on the external validation of KFRE across age subgroups, CKD etiologies, and comorbidities in highly complex patients.

We conducted a systematic review in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Google Scholar, Semantic Scholar, the Cochrane Library, SciELO, Dialnet, and DOAJ for peer-reviewed articles in English and Spanish to identify all studies validating the KFRE in different age groups, CKD etiologies, and comorbidities since the original development study by Tangri et al. (2011). Risk of bias and certainty of evidence were assessed using PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool) and the GRADE framework, respectively. When the mean (SD) age was not reported, it was estimated from the median (IQR) using the method described by Wan et al. (2014).

Thirty studies were included (Figure 1). The mean age of the evaluated populations was 69.5 ± 10.2 years. Across analyses, the KFRE showed high discrimination (c-statistic/AUC >0.70). Diabetic kidney disease (28.8%) and hypertensive kidney disease (29.3%) were the most frequent CKD etiologies analyzed. Other etiologies—such as autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD, 1.3%) and chronic tubulointerstitial nephropathy (CTIN, 2.5%)—were underrepresented (p < 0.0001). The most common comorbidities were diabetes mellitus (31%), hypertension (56%), vascular disease (6.1%), and heart failure (HF) (3.5%). Only one study directly evaluated a population with frailty (0.58%). Overall, only 9 studies (30%) were rated as low risk of bias (Figure 2), and the certainty of findings was moderate in 47% and low in 53% of studies, indicating that more than half warrant cautious interpretation.



Figure 2. Risk-of-bias assessment using PROBAST


Most participants in the included studies were between 60 and 80 years of age; individuals <60 or >80 years appear underrepresented. Likewise, patients with non-typically albuminuric etiologies (e.g., ADPKD, CTIN) or comorbidities such as HF or frailty are underrepresented in KFRE validations. KFRE should not be used as the sole criterion for referral in these groups.

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