Redefining High-Risk Age for CKD in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case for Earlier Screening in People Living with HIV

 

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https://storage.unitedwebnetwork.com/files/1099/01a2580b6b89f4ac13481d8bf092d059.pdf
Redefining High-Risk Age for CKD in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case for Earlier Screening in People Living with HIV

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Huda
Al Akrabi
Huda Al Akrabi drakrabi@gmail.com KCMC University Faculty of Medicine Moshi Tanzania * Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Center Internal Medicine Moshi Tanzania
Phibi Wakibara phibiongujowakibara@gmail.com KCMC University Faculty of Medicine Moshi Tanzania -
Datius Mutalemwa Datiusmuty@hotmail.com Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Center Internal Medicine Moshi Tanzania -
Hamze Rage hmzrage@gmail.com Hargeisa Group Hospital Internal Medicine Hargeisa Somalia -
Kajiru Kilonzo mtundumliasi@googlemail.com KCMC University Faculty of Medicine Moshi Tanzania - Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Center Internal Medicine Moshi Tanzania
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Chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains a leading cause of premature mortality among people living with HIV (PLHIV). Despite integrated HIV–NCD management, Tanzanian HIV guidelines still define “high-risk” age for CKD screening as ≥50 years. Growing evidence suggests that kidney aging in HIV begins earlier, driven by metabolic, viral, and drug-related factors. This study evaluated age-related incidence and predictors of CKD among PLHIV at a tertiary centre in Northern Tanzania.

We conducted a retrospective cohort of PLHIV enrolled at the KCMC Care and Treatment Centre between 2011 and 2019 and followed for five years. Participants with normal baseline kidney function were included. CKD was defined as two consecutive eGFR values below 60 mL/min/1.73 m² at least three months apart, using the CKD-EPI 2021 formula. Multivariable logistic regression identified independent predictors at 95 % confidence and p<0.05.

Among 544 participants (69.8 % female; median age 38 years), the CKD incidence was 14.5 per 1000 person-years, rising sharply with age from 7.2 (<40 years) to 21.4 (40–49 years) and 26.6 (≥50 years). In adjusted analysis, individuals aged 40–49 years had nearly fourfold higher odds of CKD (aOR 3.9, 95 % CI 1.2–9.8, p<0.01). Hypertension (aOR 4.9, 95 % CI 2.1–11.5, p<0.001), tenofovir use (aOR 2.2, p=0.016), and poor ART adherence (aOR 5.1, p=0.005) were also significant predictors.




CKD risk among PLHIV accelerates as early as the fourth decade of life, preceding current guideline thresholds. These findings provide evidence for lowering the “high-risk” age cut-off to ≥40 years. Incorporating early renal screening, hypertension control, and tenofovir stewardship into HIV programs could reduce preventable kidney failure and premature deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. These findings underscore the urgency of redefining HIV-CKD screening thresholds to age ≥40 years across sub-Saharan Africa.

Kewords