Overweight and Obesity as Modifiable Determinants of Kidney Prognosis in ADPKD: Insights from Attribute-Based Cross-Classification Analysis by Sex and Age

 

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Overweight and Obesity as Modifiable Determinants of Kidney Prognosis in ADPKD: Insights from Attribute-Based Cross-Classification Analysis by Sex and Age

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Yuki
Kobayashi
Hiroshi Kataoka kataoka@twmu.ac.jp Tokyo Women’s Medical University Department of Nephrology Tokyo Japan -
Yuki Kobayashi 11230038ky@twmu.ac.jp Tokyo Women’s Medical University Department of Nephrology Tokyo Japan *
Yusuke Ushio yusuke.ushio0212@gmail.com Tokyo Women’s Medical University Department of Nephrology Tokyo Japan -
Momoko Seki seki.momoko@twmu.ac.jp Tokyo Women’s Medical University Department of Nephrology Tokyo Japan -
Rina Takahashi takahashi.rina_2@twmu.ac.jp Tokyo Women’s Medical University Department of Nephrology Tokyo Japan -
Shiho Makabe makabe.shiho@twmu.ac.jp Tokyo Women’s Medical University Department of Nephrology Tokyo Japan -
Shun Manabe shunmn5711@gmail.com Tokyo Women’s Medical University Department of Nephrology Tokyo Japan -
Toshio Mochizuki mtoshi@pkd-jinzounaika.com Tokyo Women’s Medical University Department of Nephrology Tokyo Japan -
Ken Tsuchiya tsuchiya@twmu.ac.jp Tokyo Women’s Medical University Department of Nephrology Tokyo Japan -
Kosaku Nitta nitta.kosaku@gmail.com Tokyo Women’s Medical University Department of Nephrology Tokyo Japan -
Junichi Hoshino jhoshinoind@gmail.com Tokyo Women’s Medical University Department of Nephrology Tokyo Japan -
 
 
 
 

Overweight and obesity may accelerate kidney disease progression in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD), yet their prognostic implications remain unclear, particularly across sex and age subgroups. This study examined the impact of overweight/obesity on renal outcomes using an Attribute-Based Medicine (ABM) framework with cross-classification by sex and age, providing a precision-medicine approach to individualized risk assessment.

We analyzed 553 ADPKD patients not receiving renal replacement therapy (median age: 43 years; eGFR: 55.9 mL/min/1.73 m²; total kidney volume: 1335.4 mL). Overweight/obesity was defined according to body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg/m². Patients were cross-classified by sex (men/women) and age (<50/≥50 years). The renal outcome—defined as a ≥30% decline in eGFR or initiation of renal replacement therapy—was evaluated using Cox regression. Mean follow-up duration was 6.9 years, during which 266 renal events occurred.

In the overall cohort, overweight/obesity was significantly associated with worse renal prognosis (HR=1.43, P=0.042). No significant interaction was observed between overweight/obesity and age ≥50 years in either sex (interaction P=0.928 in men, P=0.168 in women), though women showed a trend toward greater age-related effects. Using cross-classification, the association between overweight/obesity and kidney prognosis was particularly strong in women under 50 years (HR=3.20, P=0.004), followed by men under 50 (HR=1.82, P=0.037). In contrast, no significant associations were found in women aged ≥50 years (HR=0.51, P=0.177) or men aged ≥50 years (HR=1.30, P=0.576). These findings suggest a sex–age-dependent influence of metabolic stress on disease progression.

Overweight and obesity represent key modifiable risk factors for kidney function decline in ADPKD, particularly in younger individuals—most notably younger women. Attribute-Based Medicine (ABM) employing sex–age cross-classification reveals heterogeneous vulnerability patterns, offering actionable insights for precision nephrology and preventive strategies tailored to demographic attributes. Presented from the perspective of “Preserving Kidney Health,” this work extends prior findings and was previously presented at the American Society of Nephrology Kidney Week 2025 as an encore abstract.

Kewords