PROGNOSTIC VALUE OF ESTIMATED FUNCTIONAL NEPHRON NUMBER AT DIAGNOSIS IN MEMBRANOUS NEPHROPATHY: A LONGITUDINAL COHORT STUDY

 

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https://storage.unitedwebnetwork.com/files/1099/36da6868829483e402f8b3ae5c33054d.pdf
PROGNOSTIC VALUE OF ESTIMATED FUNCTIONAL NEPHRON NUMBER AT DIAGNOSIS IN MEMBRANOUS NEPHROPATHY: A LONGITUDINAL COHORT STUDY

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Yusuke
Okabayashi
Yusuke Okabayashi kmckr843@yahoo.co.jp The Jikei University School of Medicine Division of Nephrology and Hypertension, Department of Internal Medicine Tokyo Japan *
Nobuo Tsuboi nobuotsuboi@gmail.com The Jikei University School of Medicine Division of Nephrology and Hypertension, Department of Internal Medicine Tokyo Japan -
Aoi Miyashita aoi.pi0308@gmail.com The Jikei University School of Medicine Division of Nephrology and Hypertension, Department of Internal Medicine Tokyo Japan -
Akane Watanabe akaneeeee0808@gmail.com The Jikei University School of Medicine Division of Nephrology and Hypertension, Department of Internal Medicine Tokyo Japan -
Hirokazu Marumoto maru5181@gmail.com The Jikei University School of Medicine Division of Nephrology and Hypertension, Department of Internal Medicine Tokyo Japan -
Takaya Sasaki takayang913@gmail.com The Jikei University School of Medicine Division of Nephrology and Hypertension, Department of Internal Medicine Tokyo Japan -
Kotaro Haruhara kspring00712@gmail.com The Jikei University School of Medicine Division of Nephrology and Hypertension, Department of Internal Medicine Tokyo Japan -
Hiroyuki Ueda hi-ro@jikei.ac.jp The Jikei University School of Medicine Division of Nephrology and Hypertension, Department of Internal Medicine Tokyo Japan -
Takashi Yokoo tyokoo@jikei.ac.jp The Jikei University School of Medicine Division of Nephrology and Hypertension, Department of Internal Medicine Tokyo Japan -
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Membranous nephropathy (MN) exhibits relatively uniform glomerular pathology, whereas clinical courses are heterogeneous. Anti-PLA2R antibody positivity and clinical features such as male sex, older age, and heavy proteinuria at diagnosis have been linked to prognosis, and electron microscopy (EM) stage is also considered in risk assessment. Structural determinants, particularly nephron number, remain understudied. We evaluated whether the estimated nephron number at diagnosis predicts subsequent kidney outcomes in MN.

We conducted a retrospective, longitudinal cohort study of biopsy-proven primary MN. Nephron number per kidney was estimated by combining non-sclerotic glomerular density from histomorphometry with cortical volume measured on non-contrast computed tomography. The primary endpoint was the annualized slope of eGFR decline. The secondary endpoint was a 40% reduction from baseline eGFR during follow-up. For the primary endpoint, we used linear mixed-effects models with patient-level random intercepts and a time-by-nephron-number interaction term, adjusting for age, sex, baseline eGFR, proteinuria, EM stage, and anti-PLA2R status. For the secondary endpoint, group differences over time were visualized with Kaplan–Meier curves and compared using log-rank tests.

Among 93 patients (mean age 64 years, 73% male, mean eGFR 65 mL/min/1.73 m², mean proteinuria 4.2 g/day), the median nephron number was 730,000 per kidney, and 36% were anti-PLA2R positive. EM stage at diagnosis was Stage I in 17 patients (18.3%), Stage II in 47 (50.5%), Stage III in 24 (25.8%), and Stage IV in 5 (5.4%). Median follow-up was 7.8 years, and 29 patients (31%) met the endpoint of a 40% reduction from baseline eGFR. Lower nephron number was independently associated with a faster eGFR decline (−0.031 mL/min/1.73 m² per 100,000 nephrons per year, P=0.006). In tertile analyses, fewer nephrons were associated with a significantly steeper annual eGFR decline (P for trend <0.001). The low-nephron-number group experienced a 0.69 mL/min/1.73 m² per year faster eGFR decline than the high-nephron-number group (−1.486 vs −0.799 mL/min/1.73 m² per year, P<0.001) (Figure A). Kaplan–Meier curves showed lower renal event-free survival in patients with lower nephron number (log-rank P=0.025) (Figure B).

Predicted eGFR trajectories from an adjusted mixed-effects model

Lower nephron number at diagnosis was independently associated with a faster loss of kidney function and a higher incidence of a 40% eGFR decline in MN, beyond EM stage, anti-PLA2R status, and clinical covariates including age, sex, and proteinuria. Incorporating nephron number into prognostic assessment may improve risk stratification at diagnosis by capturing structural reserve that is not fully reflected by serologic findings or routine clinical measures.

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