RISK-BASED STRATIFICATION OF STAGE 2 CKM SYNDROME FOR IDENTIFICATION OF HIGH-RISK PATIENTS

 

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https://storage.unitedwebnetwork.com/files/1099/dc34b1b472e88b3b3227db781bf47bfb.pdf
RISK-BASED STRATIFICATION OF STAGE 2 CKM SYNDROME FOR IDENTIFICATION OF HIGH-RISK PATIENTS

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Zhejia
Tian
Zhejia Tian tian.zhejia@mh-hannover.de Hannover Medical School Department of Nephrology and Hypertension Hannover Germany *
Kai Schmidt-Ott schmidt-ott.kai@mh-hannover.de Hannover Medical School Department of Nephrology and Hypertension Hannover Germany -
Anette Melk melk.anette@mh-hannover.de Hannover Medical School Department of Pediatric Kidney, Liver and Metabolic Diseases Hannover Germany -
Bernhard Schmidt schmidt.bernhard@mh-hannover.de Hannover Medical School Department of Nephrology and Hypertension Hannover Germany -
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Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome involves multiple organ systems and is associated with a graded increase in mortality risk across stages. Stage 2 includes individuals with metabolic risk factors and/or moderate- to high-risk chronic kidney disease (CKD) without subclinical or clinical cardiovascular disease, representing nearly half of US adults. This study aimed to develop and validate a simple model based on easily assessable parameters to stratify CKM syndrome stage 2 into two risk groups, in order to improve patient care and prevent cardiovascular events and mortality.

We analyzed adult participants from the 1999-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) linked to the US National Death Index, selecting those with CKM syndrome stage 2 and dividing the sample into development and validation cohorts. Variables were selected using modified LASSO regression and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, with cardiovascular death as the outcome. Model discrimination was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the C-statistic, with survival analyses also performed to evaluate discrimination. Calibration tests and internal validation were conducted to evaluate model performance. TriNetX database with de-identified aggregated patient-level data from medical records was analyzed to evaluate the clinical implications of the model, using major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) as outcome.

We developed a sex-specific model. Women classified as higher risk (stage 2b) meet at least two of the following criteria: age ≥ 66 years, CKD, diabetes, and hypertension (time-dependent AUC 0.79; C-index 0.78); men classified as higher risk (stage 2b) meet at least two of the following: age ≥ 61 years, CKD, diabetes, and smoking (time-dependent AUC 0.73; C-index 0.72). External validation confirmed preserved cardiovascular risk discrimination (women: time-dependent AUC 0.75; men: time-dependent AUC 0.77) with significantly distinct 10-year cumulative incidence of cardiovascular death. When applied the model to TriNetX cohort, women in stage 2a had a 10-year-risk of 11.3% (95% CI 10.0 to 12.6) compared to 24.6% (95% CI 24.0 to 25.2) in stage 2b, while men’s risk increased from 13.1% (95% CI 12.7 to 13.6) to 30.8% (95% CI 30.0 to 31.5).

Stratification of CKM syndrome stage 2 using our model facilitates individualized risk assessment and targeted management, enabling early interventions to prevent progression to advanced CKM syndrome stages, particularly among high-risk individuals.

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