Large Language Model-Based Real-time Acute Kidney Injury Prediction with Explainable Risk Attribution: A Multi-Center Development and Validation Study

 

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Large Language Model-Based Real-time Acute Kidney Injury Prediction with Explainable Risk Attribution: A Multi-Center Development and Validation Study

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Lingyi
Xu
Lingyi Xu lingyi_xu@bjmu.edu.cn Peking University First Hospital Nephrology Beijing China *
Kun Yan kyan2018@pku.edu.cn Peking University School of Computer Science Beijing China -
Ping Wang pwang@pku.edu.cn Peking University School of Software and Microelectronics Beijing China -
Xizi Zheng xizizheng@bjmu.edu.cn Peking University First Hospital Nephrology Beijing China -
Li Yang li.yang@bjmu.edu.cn Peking University First Hospital Nephrology Beijing China -
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Acute kidney injury (AKI) represents a potentially life-threatening condition among hospitalized patients, with early prediction offering crucial opportunities for prevention. Despite advances in existing prediction models, clinical implementation has been hindered by excessive false positive rates (70%-99.4%) and inability to provide actionable clinical insights. This study aims to develop and validate a novel LLM-based framework that addresses these critical gaps.

We conducted a multi-center retrospective cohort study and developed two specialized large language models based on the Qwen2.5-7B architecture. The first model, AKI-PM, predicts AKI occurrence within 24 hours following pre-training on a specialized kidney corpus (4.26 billion tokens) and supervised fine-tuning. The second model, AKI-RAM, provides explainable risk attribution through a combination of fine-tuning and alignment techniques. We evaluated AKI-PM using standard discrimination metrics, while AKI-RAM underwent rigorous human evaluation to assess its clinical utility. The validation database comprised electronic health records from four geographically and institutionally diverse hospitals in China.

Our study included 140,637 hospital admissions from four independent institutions, allocated to fine-tuning (n = 47,750), internal validation (n = 17,074), and external validation (n = 75,813). The overall AKI incidence across all cohorts was 4.8%. AKI-PM outperformed six leading LLMs, achieving an accuracy of 0.91, AUC of 0.95, sensitivity of 0.79, specificity of 0.93, and positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.68 in internal validation. External validation demonstrated robust generalizability (accuracy 0.82-0.88; AUC 0.88-0.91; PPV 0.47-0.62), with further improvements using few-shot learning (accuracy 0.90-0.92; AUC 0.92-0.96; PPV 0.69-0.74). Performance remained consistent across most clinical subgroups. AKI-RAM effectively delivered structured risk attributions by categorizing modifiable and non-modifiable factors with tailored clinical recommendations. Clinical evaluation of 200 cases (50 from each of the four independent hospitals) by three nephrologists with more than 5 years of experience yielded high assessment scores (Likert 4.02-4.87) across eight clinical dimensions.

This study provides an accurate, interpretable, and scalable solution for AKI prediction and prevention, demonstrating strong potential for integration into diverse clinical environments to support early intervention and improve patient outcomes.

Kewords