EVALUATING THE CLINICAL, SOCIOECONOMIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF GUIDELINE-DIRECTED THERAPY IN JAPAN: AN IMPACT CKD ANALYSIS

 

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EVALUATING THE CLINICAL, SOCIOECONOMIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF GUIDELINE-DIRECTED THERAPY IN JAPAN: AN IMPACT CKD ANALYSIS

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Kei
Nagai
Kei Nagai knagai@md.tsukuba.ac.jp University of Tsukuba Department of Nephrology Ibaraki Japan *
Shingo Shoji shingo.shoji@astrazeneca.com AstraZeneca K.K. Evidence and Observational Research, Medical Osaka Japan -
Noriharu Chishima Noriharu.Chishima@astrazeneca.com AstraZeneca K.K. Cardiovascular, Renal and Metabolism, BioPharmaceuticals Medical Osaka Japan -
Stacey Priest stacey.priest@eversana.com EVERSANA Value & Evidence Services Burlington Canada -
Keisuke Nansai nansai.keisuke@nies.go.jp National Institute for Environmental Studies Material Cycles Division Ibaraki Japan -
Kouichi Tamura tamukou@yokohama-cu.ac.jp Yokohama City University Graduate School of Medicine Department of Medical Science and Cardiorenal Medicine Kanagawa Japan -
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an increasing health concern in Japan due to the ageing population. A global simulation study suggests that 6.9% to 59.3% increase in people with CKD G3-5 and 3.6% to 170.8% increase of patients on dialysis between 2022 and 2032 across eight countries, however, also suggests that improved implementation of guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) for CKD could yield significant clinical, economic, and environmental benefits by delaying disease progression and reducing clinical events. Japan, experiencing population decline, ageing, and a decrease in the number of patients on dialysis, is not extrapolative from other countries’ results. This study aimed to illustrate the clinical, economic, and environmental impacts of increasing CKD diagnosis and enhancing implementation of GDMT for CKD in Japan.

This study applied the IMPACT CKD model to estimate clinical, economic, and environmental outcomes between several diagnosis and treatment scenarios, including 25% increased diagnosis followed by 75% improved implementation to GDMT, versus current practice over a 25-year period (baseline: 2025). The IMPACT CKD model is a previously published microsimulation model built to simulate the progression of CKD and consider the impact of clinical events and comorbidities to predict the clinical, economic, patient and social, and environmental burden. Model input data were extracted from a literature review to incorporate Japan-specific data. Various GDMT for CKD consisting of glucose-lowering therapy, lipid-lowering therapy, antihypertensive therapy, lifestyle interventions and medications to treat CKD with renal protective effects (e.g. SGLT2 inhibitors) were considered. It was assumed that patients diagnosed with CKD could be treated with multiple therapies per guideline eligibility and that there would be no changes to guidelines. Treatment effects on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline, cardiovascular events, and acute kidney injury (AKI) events were assumed to be multiplicative.

As a result of the literature search, model input data were extracted from several sources, including DISCOVER CKD for estimating eGFR decline. The predicted effects of improved implementation to GDMT on clinical outcomes (e.g., numbers of patients undergoing renal replacement therapy [RRT], or experiencing cardiovascular events, AKI, and death), economic outcomes (e.g., RRT and total CKD-related costs), and environmental outcomes (e.g., freshwater consumption, fossil fuel consumption, and carbon emissions associated) were evaluated.

We used the IMPACT CKD model to estimate the impact of improved diagnosis and treatment on CKD burden based on Japanese demographic trends and clinical patterns. The findings from this study should be used as a tool for promoting improved implementation to GDMT in Japan, not only for clinical benefits, but also economics, environmental impact, and patient and societal burden. Furthermore, the data is informative for building policy actions aimed at improving implementation of GDMT to mitigate the CKD burden on patients, healthcare system, and society in Japan.

Kewords