EDUCATION STRATIFIES CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE THERAPY CHOICES BY RISK FOR SHORT TERM MORTALITY

 

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EDUCATION STRATIFIES CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE THERAPY CHOICES BY RISK FOR SHORT TERM MORTALITY

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Jeffrey
Rimmer
Jeffrey Rimmer Jeffrey.Rimmer@uvmhealth.org UVM Health Nephrology Burlington Vermont United States *
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In Vermont, patients with advanced Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD), eGFR < 20 ml/min/1.73 m2, have access to a CKD navigator program with standardized education, assessment, shared planning and continued monitoring until they reach an endpoint (kidney transplant, dialysis, death in a supportive care program or unanticipated death). Presentation of predicted specific risk for death has been suggested to improve the quality of shared decisions. Although the program undertakes frank discussions of risks, benefits and changes in quality of life associated with various therapies, there is no quantitative discussion of risk for death.  This study was undertaken to determine if a qualitative approach to education and decision making is associated with stratification of the risk for death among various therapeutic paths.

Charts of 442 patients contacted by the Navigator program between 11/2020 and 5/2025 were reviewed. Of these, 215 had completed education and participated in the creation of a long-term plan. Eighty-five patients had data at the time of their plan creation that allowed estimation of the risk of renal replacement therapy and death using the CKD-PC online risk model (https://www.ckdpc.org/risk-models.html). The risk for death was retrospectively calculated and stratified by therapies chosen at the time of planning; HHD-home hemodialysis, ICHD-incenter hemodialysis, PD-peritoneal dialysis, SC-supportive care, TXP-kidney transplant and UNDEC-undecided. Forty-five of these patients reached a predetermined endpoint; Death in supportive care-DeadSC, unanticipated death-DeadU, Incenter hemodialysis-ICHD, Peritoneal Dialysis-PD and Kidney Transplantation-TXP. These endpoints were matched to the 2-year risk of death at the initial plan. Descriptive statistics were calculated.

Patients had an average age of 68.2 years, 98% were white and 37.5% were female. The predicted two-year mortality differed statistically (F statistic 10.25, p < 0.001) among groups that chose various therapeutic paths. The risk was greatest in the group choosing supportive care and lowest in those choosing transplantation with forms of dialysis being intermediate (table). This difference persisted among the small groups reaching endpoints but was not significant (F statistic 2.19, p = 0.10).

Therapy Choice 2 year risk of death (%) Endpoint Initial 2 yr risk
(number) median (range) (number) median
HHD(4) 14.7(9.6-31.3) DeadSC(6) 37.3
ICHD(25) 23.6(4-50.1) DeadU(8) 25.6
PD(19) 21.9(7.8-45.6) ICHD(24) 28.2
SC(14) 32.5(16.6-46.4) PD(4) 10.5
TXP(17) 7.6(1.9-31.6) TXP(3) 11
UNDEC(6) 18.2915-22.3)

Patients educated in a CKD Navigator program appear to make therapeutic choices appropriate to their risk for early death. This occurs without specific depiction of predicted mortality. This stratification may diminish as patients approach endpoints but numbers in this study are small. Small numbers of patients and lack of diversity make generalizing from this study difficult.

Kewords