Association Between Rainfall Index and Incidence of Leptospirosis Cases in Ceará, Brazil (2007–2024)

 

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Association Between Rainfall Index and Incidence of Leptospirosis Cases in Ceará, Brazil (2007–2024)

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Polianna
Polianna Lemos Moura Moreira Albuquerque
João Henrique Vaz daavipierre@gmail.com University of Fortaleza Medicine Fortaleza Brazil -
Guilherme Diniz daavipierre@gmail.com University of Fortaleza Medicine Fortaleza Brazil -
Alisson Escossio daavipierre@gmail.com Federal University of Ceará Medicine Fortaleza Brazil -
Israel Nascimento daavipierre@gmail.com University of Fortaleza Medicine Fortaleza Brazil -
Davi Pierre daavipierre@gmail.com University of Fortaleza Medicine Fortaleza Brazil -
Isabela Diógenes daavipierre@gmail.com University of Fortaleza Medicine Fortaleza Brazil -
André Libório daavipierre@gmail.com University of Fortaleza Medicine Fortaleza Brazil -
Ângelo Roncalli daavipierre@gmail.com University of Fortaleza Medicine Fortaleza Brazil -
Maria Rita Torres daavipierre@gmail.com University of Fortaleza Medicine Fortaleza Brazil -
João Vitor Feitosa daavipierre@gmail.com University of Fortaleza Medicine Fortaleza Brazil -
Rodrigo Costa daavipierre@gmail.com University of Fortaleza Medicine Fortaleza Brazil -
Amanda Costa daavipierre@gmail.com University of Fortaleza Medicine Fortaleza Brazil -
Camilla Graça daavipierre@gmail.com University of Fortaleza Medicine Fortaleza Brazil -
Isabella Neri daavipierre@gmail.com University of Fortaleza Medicine Fortaleza Brazil -
Polianna Polianna Lemos Moura Moreira Albuquerque polianna.albuquerque@cdu.edu.au Charles Darwin University Medicine Darwin Australia *

 Leptospirosis is a tropical zoonosis notable for its high frequency of acute kidney injury among affected patients. In Brazil, it is an endemic disease with seasonal exacerbations during rainy periods, mainly due to floods associated with densely populated low-income areas, inadequate sanitation, and a high infestation of infected rodents. The state of Ceará presents high levels of socio-environmental vulnerability, particularly in its capital, where urban drainage is insufficient. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze the correlation between rainfall index and the incidence of leptospirosis cases in a vulnerable region of Brazil, as well as to describe the epidemiological profile of affected patients.

This was an ecological study based on data from the Epidemiological Bulletin of Leptospirosis of the State of Ceará and the Ceará Foundation for Meteorology and Water Resources (FUNCEME), covering the period from 2007 to 2024. The total number of confirmed cases, incidence (per 100,000 inhabitants), age group, and exposure to risk factors were analyzed.

During the analyzed period, 1,418 cases were confirmed, with an average incidence of 0.90 per 100,000 inhabitants. The year 2009 showed the highest values in the series, with 307 cases (21%) and an incidence of 3.61, followed by 2011, with 123 cases (17%) and an incidence of 1.42. The most affected age groups were 20–34 years (33%) and 35–49 years (24%), with a predominance of males (83%) and urban residents (66%). The main risk factors identified were contact with floodwater or mud (16.42%), presence of rodents (15.52%), as well as exposure to garbage, sewage, vacant lots, and water tanks. The rainfall index reached record levels in 2009 (1213 mm), followed by 2022 (1011 mm) and 2011 (999 mm), contrasting with drought periods in 2012 (365 mm) and 2015 (523 mm). Analysis of pluviometric data from Ceará between 2007 and 2024 reveals a marked interannual variability in rainfall, characterized by alternating periods of excessive precipitation (notably in 2009 and 2022) and severe droughts (such as 2012 and 2015).

This irregularity indicates a progressive shift in rainfall distribution, suggesting the influence of broader climate change dynamics in the northeastern region of Brazil.

These fluctuations not only affect hydrological balance but also modify environmental exposure to waterborne pathogens, particularly in urban areas with precarious sanitation and rodent infestation.

The years with the highest leptospirosis incidence largely coincided with those of greater rainfall, particularly 2009, which recorded both the highest number of cases and the highest rainfall volume. The period from 2020 to 2022 should be interpreted cautiously due to potential underreporting and health system overload during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, not all years of lower incidence corresponded to lower rainfall levels, reinforcing the multifactorial nature of the disease, in which socioeconomic and environmental factors also play a role. Moreover, populations directly exposed to reservoirs (rodents) and to poor sanitation conditions exhibited higher rates of leptospirosis. Therefore, it is essential to strengthen public health policies aimed at mitigating modifiable risk factors and improving sanitation infrastructure.


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