SCREENING OF IRON METABOLISM PREDICTORS FOR ARTERIOVENOUS FISTULA PATENCY AND DOSE-RESPONSE THRESHOLD STUDY

 

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SCREENING OF IRON METABOLISM PREDICTORS FOR ARTERIOVENOUS FISTULA PATENCY AND DOSE-RESPONSE THRESHOLD STUDY

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Jingyi
Wan
Jingyi Wan wanjingyi2021@163.com Henan Provincial People's Hospital Blood Purification Center Zhengzhou China *
Ziyi Wang wzy15516900005@126.com Henan Provincial People's Hospital Blood Purification Center Zhengzhou China -
Zhenmeng Xiao xiaozm_mzx@163.com Henan Provincial People's Hospital Blood Purification Center Zhengzhou China -
Yang Lu 1277341892@qq.com Henan Provincial People's Hospital Blood Purification Center Zhengzhou China -
Hongtao Zhang zhtzzu@126.com Henan Provincial People's Hospital Blood Purification Center Zhengzhou China -
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The arteriovenous fistula for renal dialysis serves as the “lifeline” for hemodialysis patients, with its patency directly determining patient prognosis and quality of life. Current clinical practice for preventing AVF failure primarily focuses on surgical techniques and traditional cardiovascular risk factors, lacking effective, actionable biological warning indicators. This study aims to systematically investigate the independent association between key iron metabolism indicators and one-year AVF patency. Its core objective is to determine precise clinical intervention thresholds using nonlinear modeling, thereby providing direct, quantifiable evidence-based support for developing AVF protection strategies based on iron metabolism management.

A retrospective study included 594 patients who underwent their first percutaneous transluminal angioplasty at our hospital between January 2021 and August 2025 and were on regular dialysis. Patients were divided into a one-year patency group (n=244) and a one-year non-patency group (n=350) based on whether their arteriovenous fistula remained patent at one year. Multivariate analysis was performed using binary logistic regression. Model 1 adjusted for baseline confounders including age, sex, diabetes, and hypertension. Model 2 further adjusted for monocyte count, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, lymphocyte ratio, monocyte/lymphocyte ratio, hemoglobin, red cell distribution width, and C-reactive protein to control for confounding effects of inflammation and nutritional status. A novel application of restricted cubic spline models was employed to fit the dose-response relationship between iron metabolism indicators and fistula patency duration.

Univariate analysis revealed strong associations between serum iron, unsaturated iron-binding capacity, ferritin, and transferrin saturation with AVF patency. After multivariate adjustment (Model 2), ferritin was confirmed as a protective factor for AVF patency. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) plots demonstrated that SF exhibited only a linear effect on one-year AVF occlusion, while SI and TSAT showed nonlinear effects. Further threshold effect analysis revealed an SI cutoff point of 24.56. When SI < 24.56, the risk of one-year non-patency decreased with increasing SI (OR=0.938, 95% CI 0.908–0.968). When SI ≥ 24.56, the risk of one-year non-patency increased with increasing SI (OR = 1.056, 95% CI 1.005–1.110). The cutoff point for TSAT was 0.543. When TSAT ≥ 0.543, the risk of one-year patency loss decreased with increasing TSAT (OR = 0.059, 95% CI 0.016–0.214). When TSAT ≥ 0.543, the risk of one-year patency loss increased with increasing TSA (OR = 4.462, 95% CI 2.49–63.493).

Figure 1:RCS Restricted Cubic Spline Chart.

The restrictive cubic spline model revealed a complex linear relationship between SF and AV fistula patency, while SI and TSAT exhibited complex nonlinear relationships with AV fistula patency. When SI ≥ 24.56, the one-year risk of nonpatency increased with rising SI values. When TSAT ≥ 0.543, the one-year risk of nonpatency increased with rising TSAT values.

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