BURDEN AND MODIFIABLE DETERMINANTS OF RAPID KIDNEY FUNCTION DECLINE AMONG ADULTS WITH CKD IN NORTHERN TANZANIA

 

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BURDEN AND MODIFIABLE DETERMINANTS OF RAPID KIDNEY FUNCTION DECLINE AMONG ADULTS WITH CKD IN NORTHERN TANZANIA

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Huda
Al Akrabi
Huda Al Akrabi drakrabi@gmail.com KCMC University Faculty of Medicine Moshi Tanzania *
Leanji Leonard leanjisimwimba1995@gmail.com KCMC University Faculty of Medicine Moshi Tanzania -
Kajiru Kilonzo mtundumliasi@gmail.com KCMC University Faculty of Medicine Moshi Tanzania -
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Background :Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a growing global health challenge projected to become the fifth leading cause of death by 2040. The burden is greatest in low- and middle-income countries, where diagnostic and treatment capacity are limited. Quantifying the magnitude and determinants of rapid CKD progression in such settings is essential for early intervention and policy action.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among adults (≥18 years) with CKD stages 3–5 attending the KCMC renal clinic between January 2019 and May 2024. Clinical, laboratory, and treatment data were extracted from the hospital electronic system. Rapid CKD progression was defined as an annual eGFR decline > 5 mL/min/1.73 m². Multivariable logistic regression identified independent predictors

Results: Of 320 eligible patients, 173 (54.1%) experienced rapid kidney function decline. Among these, hyponatremia was present in 60.7%, hypoalbuminemia in 77.4%, and uncontrolled systolic blood pressure in 85.8%. After multivariable adjustment, low serum albumin (AOR 18.7; 95% CI 3.03–114.98; p < 0.01), hyponatremia (AOR 3.0; 95% CI 1.19–7.38; p = 0.02), and elevated systolic blood pressure (AOR 50.0, p = 0.01) remained independent predictors of RKFD. .

Over half of Tanzanian CKD stage 3–4 patients experienced rapid loss of kidney function, primarily driven by modifiable factors. Early correction of hyponatremia, nutritional optimization to improve serum albumin, and strict control of systolic blood pressure (AOR 50.0; p < 0.01) could substantially delay progression to ESRD.
These findings provide a practical framework for risk-based CKD management in low-resource settings and support integration of nutrition and electrolyte monitoring within national NCD programs. This first Tanzanian study quantifying modifiable drivers of RKFD using eHMS-linked data offers actionable insights for prevention, registry design, and targeted clinical follow-up at KCMC.

Kewords