LONG-TERM eGFR SLOPES AMONG KIDNEY DISEASES: BIOPSY-BASED COHORT STUDY

 

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LONG-TERM eGFR SLOPES AMONG KIDNEY DISEASES: BIOPSY-BASED COHORT STUDY

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Hisashi
Kamido
Hisashi Kamido hisashi.kamido137@gmail.com Toranomon Hospital Kajigaya Nephrology Center Kanagawa Japan *
Masayuki Yamanouchi yamanouchi.masayuki@gmail.com Toranomon Hospital Kajigaya Nephrology Center Kanagawa Japan -
Yuki Oba pugpug.yuki008@gmail.com Toranomon Hospital Kajigaya Nephrology Center Kanagawa Japan -
Hiroki Mizuno hilomiz@yahoo.co.jp Toranomon Hospital Kajigaya Nephrology Center Kanagawa Japan -
Tatsuya Suwabe suwabetat@gmail.com Toranomon Hospital Kajigaya Nephrology Center Kanagawa Japan -
Yoshifumi Ubara ubara@toranomon.gr.jp Toranomon Hospital Kajigaya Nephrology Center Kanagawa Japan -
Naoki Sawa naokisnrd@yahoo.co.jp Toranomon Hospital Kajigaya Nephrology Center Kanagawa Japan -
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Comparative evidence on diagnosis-specific long-term eGFR slopes—both trajectories and declines—remains limited.

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adults who underwent native kidney biopsy at two high-volume nephrology centers in Japan from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2023.

Ten diagnostic categories were analyzed: IgA nephropathy (IgA), minor glomerular abnormalities (MGA), nephrosclerosis (NS), diabetic nephropathy (DN), membranous nephropathy (MN), focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS), lupus nephritis (LN), crescentic glomerulonephritis (CG), tubulointerstitial nephritis (TN), and amyloidosis (AL).

From the biopsy date through September 30, 2025, eGFR slopes were analyzed with linear mixed-effects models (LMMs). The urinary protein-to-creatinine ratio (UPCR) was included as a time-varying covariate, whereas eGFR at biopsy (eGFR₀) and use of kidney-protective agents (ARBs, ARNIs, SGLT2 inhibitors, MRAs) were included as fixed covariates. Between-group differences were evaluated with Wald tests (MGA as the reference).

The cumulative incidence of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) was estimated with the Aalen–Johansen method, treating death as a competing event, and group differences were assessed with Gray’s test.

A total of 1,471 patients were included; median follow-up was 7 [4–12] years with 59 [32–100] eGFR measurements per patient, yielding 110,271 observations overall.

eGFR trajectories showed the steepest decline in the following order: TN/CG < MGA < MN/IgA < LN < NS < AL/FSGS < DN, and this pattern persisted after adjustment for time-varying UPCR, medication exposure, and eGFR₀ (Figure 1).

The annual eGFR declines (mL/min/1.73 m²/year) were −0.6 (95% CI, −1.2 to −0.1) in MGA, −2.7 (95% CI, −3.7 to −1.8) in FSGS, and −2.7 (95% CI, −3.6 to −1.8) in DN; both FSGS and DN declined significantly faster than MGA (p<0.01) (Table 1).

The cumulative incidence of ESKD in MGA remained low and stable over 15 years (1.7%), whereas that in DN increased sharply, exceeding 50% by 10 years and approaching 70% by 15 years. Pairwise Gray tests supported three ESKD risk tiers— MGA/MN/TN/LN/IgA/CG (lowest), AL/NS/FSGS (intermediate), and DN (highest)—with all cross-tier comparisons significant (p<0.05) and no within-tier differences.


Figure1Table1

This biopsy-based cohort clarifies diagnosis-specific differences in long-term eGFR slopes, underscoring the need for disease-tailored management and informing prognostic model development.

Kewords