DEVELOPMENT AND BUDGET IMPACT ANALYSIS OF A NEW CONSERVATIVE KIDNEY CARE BENEFIT PACKAGE UNDER THAILAND’S UNIVERSAL COVERAGE SCHEME USING NATIONWIDE HEALTH DATA

 

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https://storage.unitedwebnetwork.com/files/1099/cc6d9c776724f465a97e326be14740b1.pdf
DEVELOPMENT AND BUDGET IMPACT ANALYSIS OF A NEW CONSERVATIVE KIDNEY CARE BENEFIT PACKAGE UNDER THAILAND’S UNIVERSAL COVERAGE SCHEME USING NATIONWIDE HEALTH DATA

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Jeerath
Phannajit
Jeerath Phannajit jeerathp@gmail.com Imperial College London MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health London United Kingdom * King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital, Thai Red Cross Society Division of Clinical Epidemiology, Department of Medicine Bangkok Thailand Chulalongkorn University Division of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Bangkok Thailand
Natcha Yongpipatwong natcha.y@tdri.or.th Thailand Development Research Institute - Bangkok Thailand -
Jiratorn Sutawong jiratorn.s@hitap.net Health Intervention and Technology Assessment Program Foundation - Nonthaburi Thailand -
Yot Teerawattananon yot.t@hitap.net Health Intervention and Technology Assessment Program Foundation - Nonthaburi Thailand - National University of Singapore Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health Singapore Singapore
Dorothea Nitsch Dorothea.Nitsch@lshtm.ac.uk London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Department of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health London United Kingdom -
Kearkiat Praditpornsilpa kearkiat@hotmail.com Chulalongkorn University Division of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Bangkok Thailand -
Hugo C. Turner hugo.turner@imperial.ac.uk Imperial College London MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health London United Kingdom -
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Kidney replacement therapy (KRT) sustains life in kidney failure (KF) but may offer limited quality-of-life benefits for elderly patients with multiple comorbidities. Comprehensive Conservative Kidney Management (CKM) focuses on symptom control, advance care planning, and supportive care without KRT. To promote CKM, Thailand plans to introduce a new benefit package under the Universal Coverage Scheme (UCS) to support multidisciplinary care, medications, and home-based services. This study estimated the budget impact of implementing this package.

A modelling study used nationwide claims and laboratory data (2016–2024) to identify stage 5 CKD patients (eGFR <15 mL/min/1.73 m² sustained ≥90 days). CKM candidates were defined as aged ≥80 years or 75–80 years with Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥8. Monthly incidence was projected using exponential triple smoothing with 70–90% uptake scenarios. A Markov model (1-month cycles) compared survival and costs between CKM and dialysis, using propensity-score-weighted Weibull models adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, and region. Scenario analyses tested key uncertainties.

Among 3.5 million patients with ≥2 serum creatinine tests, 127,591 had CKD stage 5, and 15,046 (11.8%) were eligible for CKM. Of these, 70% chose CKM and 30% initiated dialysis Median survival from kidney failure was 5.1 (1.6–11.2) months for CKM and 17.3 (4.2–42.6) months for dialysis. Implementing the CKM package would require THB 508–630 million (USD 16.4–20.3 million) over five years at 70–90% uptake. When downstream dialysis costs were included, increasing CKM uptake from 70% to 80–90% yielded five-year savings of USD 32.7–84.8 million. Cost-saving was achieved with at least 5% increase in uptake, resulting in an initial five-year saving of USD 1.6 million. These findings were robust across multiple scenario analyses addressing uncertainties in CKM incidence, costs, and survival estimates.

Projected 5-year budget impact and savings from baseline scenario (with 70% CKM uptake and no CKM benefit package)

Implementing structured conservative kidney management (CKM) can enhance the sustainability of kidney care in resource-limited settings. Nationwide health data can inform efficient policy and resource planning. Prospective studies, together with investment in infrastructure and workforce capacity, are essential to scale CKM and ensure equitable, high-quality care.

Kewords