IDENTIFYING MULTIDIMENSIONAL RISK PROFILES IN DIALYSIS PATIENTS USING UNSUPERVISED MACHINE LEARNING CLUSTERING

 

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IDENTIFYING MULTIDIMENSIONAL RISK PROFILES IN DIALYSIS PATIENTS USING UNSUPERVISED MACHINE LEARNING CLUSTERING

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Melanie
Wolf
Melanie Wolf melanie.wolf@freseniusmedicalcare.com Renal Research Institute Advanced Analytics & Innovations New York United States *
Sheetal Chaudhuri Sheetal.Chaudhuri@freseniusmedicalcare.com Renal Research Institute Advanced Analytics & Innovations New York United States -
Peter Kotanko kotanko.peter@yahoo.com Renal Research Institute Research Department New York United States -
John Larkin John.Larkin@freseniusmedicalcare.com Renal Research Institute Advanced Analytics & Innovations New York United States -
Len Usvyat Len.Usvyat@rriny.com Renal Research Institute Advanced Analytics & Innovations New York United States -
Jeroen P. Kooman jeroen.kooman@mumc.nl Maastricht University Faculty of Health Medicine and Life Science Maastricht Netherlands -
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End-stage kidney disease (ESKD) patients treated with hemodialysis (HD) have a high disease burden and high mortality rate. ESKD is a remarkable risk factor across different health domains in itself. Combined with this, most patients have multiple comorbidities and an array of clinical abnormalities that act as risk factors for hospitalization and death events. The extent to which various types of demographic, clinical, and other risk factors may cluster and have additive prognostic value is unknown. Unsupervised machine learning (ML) methods can reveal hidden structures in complex clinical data. We applied this method across multiple laboratory and treatment domains in dialysis patients to identify risk factor profiles and evaluated whether these profiles were associated with patient outcomes. 

Data were extracted from a globally distributed anonymized dialysis database, ApolloDialDb™ (Wolf M, 2025, KI Reports). We included incident patients from countries worldwide who started dialysis treatment in 2018. K-means clustering was performed using the FASTCLUS procedure in SAS (SAS Institute Inc., USA). A 5-cluster solution was chosen as it allowed for the most distinct and clinically meaningful characterization of patient profiles. The first three months of dialysis treatment were defined as baseline. We restricted the analysis to patients with complete data on all selected relevant laboratory and treatment variables. Patients were followed up for one year after baseline.

A total of 31,523 adult patients were included who started dialysis treatment in 2018. Cluster analysis based on five clusters (Table 1) yielded one small (Cluster 5: n=21) and four large clusters (Cluster 1: n=1,045; Cluster 2: n=18,050; Cluster 3: n=11,103; Cluster 4: n=1,304). Cluster 5 showed the highest mortality rate and was characterized by anemia and an increase in inflammatory parameters such as white blood cell count, followed by cluster 4 which was characterized by more pronounced differences in nutritional parameters, as reflected by lower serum creatinine and BUN levels. Cluster 1 comprised patients with severe overweight, hyperphosphatemia, higher blood pressure and high ultrafiltration (UF) rates suggesting fluid overload; Cluster 2 included patients without specific abnormalities, whereas cluster 3 consisted of patients characterized by parameters reflecting fluid overload and hyperphosphatemia, with a comparable mortality rate as cluster 2 despite being significantly younger.


Distinct risk patterns based on meaningful differences in laboratory and treatment parameters could be identified using cluster analysis. Recognizing these risk patterns may support more personalized treatment strategies in dialysis patients. Development and testing of prognostic cluster scores appear warranted and should consider both electronic integration as well as pragmatic approaches for calculation in real-world settings.

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