Sex-specific calf circumference modifies the relationship between eGFRcr and mortality in centenarians: from a U-shaped association to a linear association

 

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Sex-specific calf circumference modifies the relationship between eGFRcr and mortality in centenarians: from a U-shaped association to a linear association

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Yizhi
Chen
Yizhi Chen yizchen@126.com Hainan Hospital of Chinese PLA General Hospital Department of Nephrology Sanya China * First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital Senior Department of Nephrology Beijng China
Yanjun Liang 419896798@qq.com First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital Senior Department of Nephrology Beijng China -
Zehao Zhang zzhnmnm@163.com Hainan Hospital of Chinese PLA General Hospital Department of Nephrology Sanya China -
Jie Song songjie-7808@163.com First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital Senior Department of Nephrology Beijng China -
Yue Niu niuyuesam@163.com First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital Senior Department of Nephrology Beijng China -
Zhe Feng zhezhe_4025@126.com First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital Senior Department of Nephrology Beijng China -
Weiguang Zhang weiguangzhang1@163.com First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital Senior Department of Nephrology Beijng China -
Ding Sun sending2013@126.com Hainan Hospital of Chinese PLA General Hospital Department of Nephrology Sanya China -
Zeyu Qu qzy2001415@163.com Hainan Hospital of Chinese PLA General Hospital Department of Nephrology Sanya China -
Miao Liu liumiaolmbxb@163.com Graduate School, Chinese PLA General Hospital Department of Anti-Nuclear, Biological, Chemical Medicine Beijng China -
Yali Zhao zhaoyl301@163.com Hainan Hospital of Chinese PLA General Hospital Central Laboratory Sanya China -
Yao He yhe301@sina.com Second Medical Center, Chinese PLA General Hospital Institute of Geriatrics, Beijing Key Laboratory of Geriatric Comorbidity, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatrics Diseases Beijng China -
Bin Wang binwang2000@aliyun.com First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital Senior Department of Nephrology Beijng China -
Xiangmei Chen xmchen301@126.com First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital Senior Department of Nephrology Beijng China -
Guangyan Cai caiguangyan@sina.com First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital Senior Department of Nephrology Beijng China -

This study aims to explore whether calf circumference, as a measure of muscle mass, has a modifying effect on the relationship between eGFR and all-cause mortality in centenarians.

This prospective study included 967 centenarians from the China Hainan Centenarian Cohort Study. eGFR was calculated using the CKD-EPI 2009 creatinine equation. Participants were grouped by clinical eGFR ranges and sex-specific calf circumference (cutoff: male ≥27 cm, female ≥24 cm). Nonlinear and linear associations were assessed using restricted cubic splines and Cox regression models. The modifying effect of calf circumference was evaluated through subgroup and interaction analyses.

Over a median follow-up of 29.4 months, 896 deaths (92.7%) occurred. RCS analysis revealed a significant U-shaped relationship between eGFR and all-cause mortality in the overall cohort (P-nonlinear < 0.05). Compared to the reference group (eGFR 45–<60 mL/min/1.73 m²), centenarians with eGFR <45 mL/min/1.73 m² had a 42.6% increased risk of mortality (HR = 1.426, 95% CI: 1.201–1.692, P < 0.001). Stratification by calf circumference markedly modified this association (P for interaction < 0.001). In the group with larger calf circumference, the relationship became strongly linear and inverse (HR = 0.857, 95% CI: 0.806–0.910, P < 0.001), whereas no significant association was observed in those with smaller calf circumference.

Unadjusted associations of eGFR values with all-cause mortality in Cox models with RCS analyses

In centenarians, a lower eGFR (<45 mL/min/1.73 m²) was independently associated with increased all-cause mortality. Crucially, sex-specific calf circumference significantly modified this relationship, such that the association between eGFR and all-cause mortality shifted from a U-shaped to a linear relationship in individuals with larger calf circumferences. These findings suggest that nutrition or muscle reserves, as reflected by calf circumference, may critically influence the link between renal function and survival in the extremely aged, highlighting the need for comprehensive assessment and further mechanistic studies.

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