Association Between serum potassium levels and CKD Progression in Japan: A Retrospective Cohort Study Using the J-CKD-DB-Ex Registry

 

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Association Between serum potassium levels and CKD Progression in Japan: A Retrospective Cohort Study Using the J-CKD-DB-Ex Registry

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Akira
Hirano
Akira Hirano kenner.1016@gmail.com Kawasaki Medical School Nephrology and Hypertension Okayama Japan *
Hajime Nagusu HajimeNagasu@kms-ndh.com Kawasaki Medical School Nephrology and Hypertension Okayama Japan -
Takaya Nakashima a82282008@gmail.com Nagasaki University Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine Nagasaki Japan -
Tadahiro Goto tadahirogoto@gmail.com Yokohama City University Health Data Science, Graduate School of Data Science Kanagawa Japan -
Naoki Kashihara kashinao@med.kawasaki-m.ac.jp Kawasaki Medical School Medical Science Kurashiki Japan -
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Hyperkalemia is a common complication in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and is associated with mortality. The relationship between serum potassium and mortality reportedly follows a U-shaped curve, and guidelines recommend maintaining potassium levels between 4.5 and 5.5 mEq/L. However, the association between serum potassium and renal outcomes remains unclear. This study investigated the relationship between serum potassium concentration and renal prognosis using data from the J-CKD-DB-Ex.

Patients were classified into four groups according to baseline serum potassium (K) levels: ≤3.9 mEq/L (hypokalemia/low range), 4.0–<4.9 mEq/L (reference/optimal range), 5.0–<5.4 mEq/L (high-normal/mild hyperkalemia range), and ≥5.5 mEq/L (hyperkalemia range). The primary endpoint was the time to the first occurrence of a composite renal outcome, defined as end-stage kidney disease (ESKD; eGFR < 15 mL/min/1.73 m²) or a ≥30% decline in eGFR from the index date. A total of 19,853 CKD patients were analyzed. The distribution across potassium groups was: ≤3.9 mEq/L, 2,803 (14.1%); 4.0–<4.9 mEq/L, 14,937 (75.2%); 5.0–<5.4 mEq/L, 1,690 (8.5%); and ≥5.5 mEq/L, 423 (2.1%).

Higher potassium levels were associated with older age (≤3.9 mEq/L: 71.0 years; 4.0–<4.9 mEq/L: 72.0; 5.0–<5.4 mEq/L: 74.0; ≥5.5 mEq/L: 75.0) and lower eGFR (50.5, 50.1, 43.5, and 36.5 mL/min/1.73 m², respectively). Kaplan–Meier analysis demonstrated that higher potassium levels were significantly associated with a higher incidence of the composite renal endpoint (log-rank p < 0.0001). The cumulative incidence rates were 13%, 11%, 20%, and 30%, indicating a stepwise increase with rising potassium levels. Compared with the reference group (4.0–<4.9 mEq/L), all other potassium categories exhibited significantly poorer renal outcomes. In multivariable Cox models adjusted for age, sex, baseline eGFR, diabetes, hypertension, and the use of RAS and SGLT2 inhibitors, both low and high potassium levels were independently associated with adverse renal outcomes. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were: ≤3.9 mEq/L, HR 1.22 (95% CI 1.09–1.37; p < 0.001); 5.0–<5.4 mEq/L, HR 1.47 (95% CI 1.31–1.65; p < 0.001); and ≥5.5 mEq/L, HR 1.91 (95% CI 1.59–2.29; p < 0.001).

Both hypokalemia and hyperkalemia were independently associated with increased risk of CKD progression. Dyskalemia may influence not only mortality but also renal outcomes. Prospective studies are needed to determine whether modifying serum potassium levels can improve renal prognosis in CKD patients.

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