ASSOCIATION OF NON-OPTIMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DIALYSIS AND MORTALITY IN PATIENTS WITH ADVANCED CKD: A POPULATION-BASED RETROSPECTIVE COHORT STUDY IN TAIWAN

 

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https://storage.unitedwebnetwork.com/files/1099/92e90ad69d0a16c25815ff47ec69348a.pdf
ASSOCIATION OF NON-OPTIMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DIALYSIS AND MORTALITY IN PATIENTS WITH ADVANCED CKD: A POPULATION-BASED RETROSPECTIVE COHORT STUDY IN TAIWAN

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Shih-Feng
Chen
Shih-Feng Chen gregchen93@gmail.com New Taipei City Hospital Nephrology New Taipei City Taiwan *
Yu-Huei Chien 60119cherry@gmail.com New Taipei City Hospital Nephrology New Taipei City Taiwan -
Chu-Hao Weng kakashipublic@gmail.com New Taipei City Hospital Medical Education and Research New Taipei City Taiwan -
Pau-Chung Chen pchen@ntu.edu.tw National Taiwan University College of Public Health Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Taipei City Taiwan -
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Chronic kidney disease (CKD) of unknown origin, possibly related to heat stress, has been reported among agricultural workers in tropical low- and middle-income countries. While high-income countries have greater heat-adaptation capacity, evidence on CKD risks from heat exposure in warm high-income settings is limited. Moreover, the effects of prolonged exposure to non-optimal cold or heat on kidney health remain unclear. This study investigates the associations between long-term non-optimal work-hour temperature exposure and the risks of dialysis progression and mortality in advanced CKD patients in a warm high-income country (HIC).

We conducted a nationwide retrospective cohort study to examine associations between long-term exposure to non-optimal work-hour temperatures and risks of dialysis progression and mortality among patients with advanced CKD in Taiwan, a subtropical-tropical HIC. Data from 86,928 advanced CKD patients enrolled between 2008 and 2021 were analyzed, with follow-up through December 31, 2022. Non-optimal temperature days were defined as mean work-hour temperatures ≥30 °C (hot) or ≤15 °C (cold). Time-weighted percentages and mean temperatures for hot and cold days during follow-up were calculated for each patient. Cox proportional hazards models estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for dialysis progression and mortality per 1% increase in exposure to non-optimal temperature days. Kaplan–Meier curves assessed outcome differences across exposure quartiles, and restricted cubic spline analyses evaluated dose–response relationships.

Each 1% increase in time-weighted cold-day (≤15 °C) exposure was associated with a 14% (HR = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.13–1.14) higher risk of dialysis progression and a 9% (HR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.09–1.10) higher risk of mortality. Conversely, a 1% increase in hot-day (≥30 °C) exposure was associated with 5% (HR = 0.95; 95% CI: 0.95–0.96) and 3% (HR = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.97–0.98) lower risks of dialysis progression and mortality, respectively. Quartile analyses of time-weighted cold- and hot-day exposure demonstrated a trend of increasing risks of both outcomes with higher cold exposure, whereas higher hot exposure was associated with reduced risks (All P for trend < 0.001). Restricted cubic spline analyses revealed a dose-dependent protective effect of higher mean temperatures (P for linearity or non-linearity < 0.001). 

Table. The association between time-weighted percentage of exposure to non-optimal work-hour temperatures and the risk of progression to maintenance dialysis and all-cause death


Figure 1. Cumulative event rates across quartiles of the time-weighted percentage of exposure: (A) progression to maintenance dialysis by hot days (≥30 °C), (B) progression to maintenance dialysis by cold days (≤15 °C), (C) mortality by hot days (≥30 °C), and (D) mortality by cold days (≤15 °C).          

Long-term cold exposure increases dialysis and mortality risks in advanced CKD, whereas prolonged hot exposure may be protective for both outcomes, reflecting population-level heat adaptation in HIC settings. These findings highlight the need for sociodemographic- and climate-sensitive policies to mitigate the adverse health impacts of non-optimal temperatures, particularly among vulnerable groups such as patients with advanced CKD.

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