Seasonal Variation in the Validity of Early Changes in Proteinuria as a Surrogate Endpoint

 

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https://storage.unitedwebnetwork.com/files/1099/8db7b0de00ee8bdbb1be1de96b24b28c.pdf
Seasonal Variation in the Validity of Early Changes in Proteinuria as a Surrogate Endpoint

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Shungo
Fukuda
Shungo Fukuda s.fukuda@kid.med.osaka-u.ac.jp The University of Osaka Graduate School of Medicine Department of Nephrology Suita Japan *
Yusuke Sakaguchi sakaguchi@kid.med.osaka-u.ac.jp The University of Osaka Graduate School of Medicine Department of Nephrology Suita Japan -
Hikaru Kadono kadono@kid.med.osaka-u.ac.jp The University of Osaka Graduate School of Medicine Department of Nephrology Suita Japan -
Ryuta Uwatoko uwatoko@kid.med.osaka-u.ac.jp The University of Osaka Graduate School of Medicine Department of Nephrology Suita Japan -
Yuki Kawano kawano@kid.med.osaka-u.ac.jp The University of Osaka Graduate School of Medicine Department of Nephrology Suita Japan -
Tatsufumi Oka oka@kid.med.osaka-u.ac.jp The University of Osaka Graduate School of Medicine Department of Nephrology Suita Japan -
Isao Matsui matsui@kid.med.osaka-u.ac.jp The University of Osaka Graduate School of Medicine Department of Nephrology Suita Japan -
Masayuki Mizui mmizui@kid.med.osaka-u.ac.jp The University of Osaka Graduate School of Medicine Department of Nephrology Suita Japan -
Jun-Ya Kaimori kaimori3411@gmail.com The University of Osaka Graduate School of Medicine Department of Nephrology Suita Japan -
Yoshitaka Isaka isaka@kid.med.osaka-u.ac.jp The University of Osaka Graduate School of Medicine Department of Nephrology Suita Japan -
 
 
 
 
 

Proteinuria has recently been proposed as an early surrogate endpoint of long-term kidney outcomes in clinical trials. However, seasonal fluctuations in proteinuria (higher in winter and lower in summer) may obscure the true effect of interventions on proteinuria. This study aimed to elucidate how the season at the initiation of intervention modifies the association between early changes in proteinuria after intervention and kidney outcomes.

We retrospectively extracted data on 1,440 patients from the Osaka Consortium for Kidney Disease Research (OCKR) cohort, who initiated renin–angiotensin system inhibitors (RASi) during the Summer or Winter and had a urinary protein-to-creatinine ratio (UPCR) of ≥0.50 g/gCr before initiation of RASi. A mixed-effects model for repeated measures was applied to evaluate early changes in UPCR after RASi initiation according to the season of RASi initiation. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine how the season of RASi initiation modifies associations between UPCR changes at 6, 9, or 12 months after RASi initiation and the subsequent risk of kidney replacement therapy (KRT).

Baseline characteristics and the risk of KRT were similar between Summer- and Winter-season initiators. Nevertheless, the mean percent reduction in UPCR at 6 months after RASi initiation was substantially greater in the Winter-season initiators than in the Summer-season initiators (59% [95% confidence interval (CI), 56-61] vs 37% [95% CI, 31-41]; between-group difference 22% [95% CI, 17-27]; P<0.001). The between-group difference was attenuated at 9 and 12 months (3.5% [95% CI, -1.1 to 8.9] at 9 months; 10% [95% CI, 6.3-15] at 12 months). A ≥30% reduction in UPCR at 6 months was associated with an 18% lower hazard of KRT (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.75–0.91) in the Summer-season initiators, compared with a non-significant 6% reduction (HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.87–1.01) in the Winter-season initiators (P for interaction=0.02). In contrast, a ≥30% reduction in UPCR at 9 and 12 months was associated with comparable hazards of KRT in the Summer- and Winter-season initiators (P for interaction= 0.24 and 0.71).

UPCR reduction at 6 months after intervention was considerably affected by seasonal fluctuations. UPCR changes at 9 or 12 months may serve as a more reliable surrogate marker for long-term kidney outcomes.

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