ASSOCIATION BETWEEN AMBIENT TEMPERATURE EXTREMES AND ACUTE KIDNEY INJURY HOSPITALIZATIONS IN JAPAN: A NATIONWIDE TIME-STRATIFIED CASE-CROSSOVER STUDY, 2011–2019

 

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https://storage.unitedwebnetwork.com/files/1099/d8be8975e761e31b1a926acbd7dd43fb.pdf
ASSOCIATION BETWEEN AMBIENT TEMPERATURE EXTREMES AND ACUTE KIDNEY INJURY HOSPITALIZATIONS IN JAPAN: A NATIONWIDE TIME-STRATIFIED CASE-CROSSOVER STUDY, 2011–2019

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Aiperi
Asanbek kyzy
Aiperi Asanbek kyzy iperyipery@gmail.com Osh State University International Medical Faculty Osh Kyrgyzstan *
Hisaaki Nishimura hisaaki.nishimura@gmail.com Institute of Science Tokyo Department of Public Health Tokyo Japan -
Nobutoshi Nawa nobujpjp@gmail.com Institute of Science Tokyo Department of Public Health Tokyo Japan -
Kiyohide Fushimi kfushimi.hci@tmd.ac.jp Institute of Science Tokyo Department of Health Policy and Informatics Tokyo Japan -
Takeo Fujiwara fujiwara.hlth@tmd.ac.jp Institute of Science Tokyo Department of Public Health Tokyo Japan -
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Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a severe condition characterized by a sudden decline in kidney function, with high mortality and healthcare costs. Although extreme ambient temperatures, particularly heatwaves, have been linked to increased AKI risk, the effects of both heat and cold exposure across different demographic groups remain unclear. This study examines the association between ambient temperatures and AKI emergency hospitalizations, with a focus on age and sex differences.

The daily number of emergency hospitalizations for AKI from 2011 to 2019 was extracted from the nationwide administrative claims database of acute-care hospitalizations across Japan (n = 119,027). A time-stratified case-crossover study incorporating conditional quasi-Poisson regression analysis was used to estimate region-specific relative risk (RR) of emergency hospitalization for AKI over lag 0–13 days. The pooled RR was subsequently derived using random-effects meta-analysis. Analyses were stratified by age (younger: 15–49 years, middle-aged: 50–64 years, and older: 65+ years) and sex.

The proportion of older adults in the study population was 77.7%, and males accounted for 63.6%. Median regional temperatures ranged from 9.9°C to 23.8°C, with maximum temperatures between 29.5°C and 32.6°C and minimum temperatures from –11.5°C to 9.2°C. The cumulative relative risk (RR) of AKI hospitalization was 2.18 (95% CI: 2.00–2.37) at the 99th percentile (extreme heat) and 1.19 (95% CI: 1.07–1.33) at the 1st percentile (extreme cold). The pooled lag–outcome association at the 1st percentile temperature showed the highest RR around lag days 2–3, gradually decreasing by lag day 6. At the 99th percentile, the highest RR was observed at lag 0, diminishing by lag day 3.

Stratified analyses by age and sex showed that extreme cold exposure increased the risk of AKI emergency hospitalizations among older females (RR 1.19; 95% CI: 1.00–1.43) and older males (RR 1.26; 95% CI: 1.08–1.48), with no significant associations observed in younger or middle-aged groups. For extreme heat exposure, females showed the highest RR in the older group (RR 1.85; 95% CI: 1.62–2.11), with weaker or no associations in the younger (RR 1.11; 95% CI: 0.68–1.82) and middle-aged groups (RR 0.95; 95% CI: 0.65–1.39). In contrast, males showed highest risk in the younger (RR 4.06; 95% CI 2.94–5.62) and middle-aged groups (RR 3.99; 95% CI 3.27–4.86), with the lowest but still significant risk observed among older males (RR 1.96; 95% CI 1.74–2.21).

Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the results across model specifications.

This nationwide study provides evidence of age- and sex-specific vulnerabilities to temperature-related AKI hospitalizations in Japan. Extreme heat was associated with the highest AKI risk among younger and middle-aged males. We also found that older females were significantly affected by heat exposure. Extreme cold was associated with increased AKI risk primarily among older adults of both sexes. These findings underscore the importance of incorporating age- and sex-specific approaches in both research and public health planning.

Kewords