Identification of rapid decline of kidney function in older adults with different types of aging

 

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Identification of rapid decline of kidney function in older adults with different types of aging

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Wen
Gong
Wen Gong gw_1022@163.com Huashan hospital Nephrology Shanghai China *
Huaiwen Chang 21110700111@m.fudan.edu.cn Huashan hospital Nephrology Shanghai China -
Mengjing Wang fiyona27@126.com Huashan hospital Nephrology Shanghai China -
Jing Chen chenjing1998@fudan.edu.cn Huashan hospital Nephrology Shanghai China -
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This study aims to evaluate the predictive value of combining glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and urine albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR) in identifying rapid kidney function decline (defined as >30% GFR reduction within 2 years) among older adults with healthy aging, aging with comorbidities, and aging with nephropathy. The goal is to develop stratified early warning criteria for these populations.

Study Cohorts: Categorical analyses were conducted using data from the Rugao Longevity and Aging Study cohort (470 healthy aging, 505 with comorbidities) and Huashan Hospital (315 with nephropathy) between 2011 and 2022. 

Risk Calculation: The feasibility of the surrogate endpoint for rapid kidney function decline (30% decline in GFR within 2 years) was also verified using UK Biobank (UKB) public data from 2006 to 2010 (5560 people). Corrected (age) absolute risk probabilities (aAR) were calculated for different GFR and ACR intervals, stratified by aging category, and aAR trend lines were fitted. 

Importance Analysis: Random forest models identified key predictors of rapid kidney function decline in each aging category. 

Baseline Characteristics: The mean ages of the healthy, comorbidity, and nephropathy groups were 78.7 (4.1), 78.4 (3.5), and 75.9 (5.7) years, respectively. Significant differences in baseline characteristics were observed among the three groups. 

Risk of Rapid Decline: The risk of rapid kidney function decline was higher in the comorbidity group and highest in the nephropathy group across all GFR-ACR combinations. 

Risk thresholds varied: In the healthy group, ACR >30 mg/g with GFR <75 ml/min/1.73 m² indicated moderate risk; in the comorbidity group, ACR >30 mg/g, particularly with GFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m², indicated high risk; and in the nephropathy group, moderate to high risk was present at all stages, especially with ACR >30 mg/g and GFR <75 ml/min/1.73 m². 

Predictive Importance: GFR was the most important predictor of rapid decline, but its predictive power decreased with the presence of comorbidities or nephropathy. Conversely, the predictive importance of ACR increased in these populations.


 The thresholds for GFR and ACR to predict rapid decline in kidney function in the elderly population need to be established according to different types of aging. 


Kewords