EFFECT OF SUBNORMAL ESTIMATED GLOMERULAR FILTRATION RATE ON ELDERLY MORTALITY VARIES BY OBESITY METRICS: A TWO-DIMENSIONAL EXPOSURE–RESPONSE ANALYSIS

 

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https://storage.unitedwebnetwork.com/files/1099/aefd332522ecc3717a02d29730eb0a80.pdf
EFFECT OF SUBNORMAL ESTIMATED GLOMERULAR FILTRATION RATE ON ELDERLY MORTALITY VARIES BY OBESITY METRICS: A TWO-DIMENSIONAL EXPOSURE–RESPONSE ANALYSIS

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Jingyi
Wu
Qianlin Zuo qianlinzuo@163.com Peking University School of Nursing Beijing China - Peking University Advanced Institute of Information Technology Hangzhou China
Jingyi Wu joywu@pku.edu.cn Peking University Advanced Institute of Information Technology Hangzhou China *
Pengfei Li pfli@bjmu.edu.cn Peking University School of Nursing Beijing China - Peking University Advanced Institute of Information Technology Hangzhou China Peking University National Institute of Health Data Science Beijing China
Shaomei Shang mei916@263.net Peking University School of Nursing Beijing China -
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Early intervention is essential for improving the prognosis of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Growing evidence indicates that even mild reductions in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) are linked to adverse kidney outcomes. However, the specific impact of subnormal eGFR (60–90 mL/min/1.73 m²) on mortality in older adults and the factors shaping individual susceptibility remain unclear. Central obesity may impair energy balance and metabolic regulation, reducing the body’s adaptability to kidney dysfunction. This study aims to examine the association between subnormal eGFR and mortality in older adults, with a focus on the sex-specific modifying effects of different obesity metrics.

A total of 136,028 elderly participants with baseline subnormal eGFR (60–90 mL/min/1.73 m²) were identified from the UK Biobank. Fixed-effects Cox regression models were used to assess both the linear and nonlinear associations between changes in subnormal eGFR and mortality. To quantify how obesity modifies adaptability to subnormal eGFR, tensor product interaction functions were applied to model the joint effects of eGFR changes and obesity metrics, presented as two-dimensional exposure–response functions (ERFs). Three obesity indicators, including waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), were analyzed.

Participants had a mean age of 59.5 ± 7.2 years. Over a median follow-up of 14.7 years (interquartile range: 13.8–15.4 years), 12,396 deaths occurred. Based on the fully-adjusted model, each 10-unit decrease in eGFR was associated with an excess mortality risk of 9.1% (95% confidence interval 6.6%–11.7%). The effects of subnormal eGFR on mortality differed by obesity metrics, with significant synergistic interactions observed for central obesity indicators (WC and WHtR). Two-dimensional ERFs demonstrated that individuals with higher central obesity exhibited a forward shift in mortality risk thresholds, reflecting reduced adaptability to mild declines in eGFR.Figure 1. Joint effects of subnormal estimated glomerular filtration rate and different obesity metrics on elderly mortality.

Subnormal eGFR was associated with elevated mortality in older adults, with risks more pronounced in those with greater central obesity. These findings underscore the importance of early intervention for subnormal eGFR and enhanced obesity management to improve resilience against kidney dysfunction in aging populations.

Kewords