DOES LIVING IN A CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE HOT SPOT CONTRIBUTE TO A FASTER DISEASE PROGRESSION? A COHORT EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDY

 

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DOES LIVING IN A CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE HOT SPOT CONTRIBUTE TO A FASTER DISEASE PROGRESSION? A COHORT EPIDEMIOLOGICAL STUDY

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Hicham
Cheikh Hassan
Hicham Cheikh Hassan h.s.hassan@gmail.com Lebanese American University School of Medicine Beirut Lebanon * University of Wollongong Graduate School of Medicine, Faculty of Science, Medicine and Health Beirut Lebanon
Karumathil M. Murali Karumathil.Murali@health.nsw.gov.au University of Wollongong Graduate School of Medicine, Faculty of Science, Medicine and Health Wollongong Australia - Wollongong Hospital Department of Renal Medicine Wollongong Australia
Kelly Lambert klambert@uow.edu.au University of Wollongong School of Medicine, Indigenous and Health Sciences, Faculty of Science, Medicine and Health Wollongong Australia -
Sola Aoun Bahous sola.bahous@lau.edu.lb Lebanese American University School of Medicine Beirut Australia -
Siba Kallab siba.kallab@lau.edu.lb Lebanese American University School of Medicine Beirut Lebanon -
Hala Kilani hala.kilani@lau.edu.lb Lebanese American University School of Medicine Beirut Australia -
Judy Mullan jmullan@uow.edu.au University of Wollongong Graduate School of Medicine, Faculty of Science, Medicine and Health Wollongong Australia -
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Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is prevalent and can affect almost 800 million individuals or 10% of the population. CKD is also progressive and requires follow-up to control risk factors and to provide life-style advice on how to prevent or delay progression.

Given the prevalence of CKD, it is expected that the distribution of CKD is not uniform, with some areas showing a higher prevalence of CKD compared to others. Previous cohorts have also established risk factors for living in an area with a higher CKD prevalence such as a lower socio-economic index. However, it has not been established if living in an area with a higher CKD prevalence, or a CKD hot-spot, is a risk factor for a faster decline in eGFR.

The Illawarra Shoal-haven Local Health District (ISLHD) is a geographical area South of Sydney in Australia which has been traditionally described as an area with the highest CKD prevalence in Australia. We therefore set out to establish 1) the CKD prevalence in ISLHD 2) areas which could be defined as a CKD hot-spot verses those that are not a hot-spot and 3) eGFR trend over time for the population and for the CKD cohort by the whole cohort and by hot-spot status. 

A retrospective population-based cohort analysis using longitudinal data from ISLHD adult patients who presented to the hospital or for pathology testing between 2008 and 2017. CKD prevalence in each suburb was calculated by dividing the total number of identified CKD patients by the total population of the suburb. We categorised suburbs into 3 categories of <8%, 8-10% and >10% with those in the >10% category classified as a hot-spot. Linear mixed-effect models was used in adjusted and unadjusted models to calculate eGFR trend per year for the whole population and by CKD group, with a subgroup examining hot-spot status designated as a fixed-effect in the model.  

We included 132,042 individuals who presented to the ISLHD between 2008- 2017. Median age was 53 years [IQR 34, 71] and 56% of the cohort were females. CKD was diagnosed in 8,937 patients with a prevalence of 8%. Crude incidence of CKD was 17.4 (95%CI 17.0-17.7) per 1,000 patient years. Incidence increased with age: <30 (0.6 per 1,000 patient years, 95%CI 0.4- 0.7), 30-49 (1.8, 95%CI 1.6-2.1), 50-70 (11.4, 95%CI 10.9-11.9) and >70 (56.5, 95%CI 55.2-57.8). Prevalence of CKD was highly variable by suburb ranging from 4% to 15%. Overall, 24% of the population lived in a hotspot compared to 76% who did not.

In the general population the annual eGFR decline was -1.19 (95% -1.23 to -1.16, P<0.001) ml/min/1.7m2, with no difference by hotspot status (hotspot: -1.22, 95%CI -1.28 to -1.15 and no hotspot: -1.19, 95%CI -1.23 to -1.15,P=0.40).

In 5,917 CKD patients, 33% lived in a hotspot compared to 67% who did not. The annual rate of eGFR decline was -0.69 (95%CI -0.85 to 0.053, P<0.001), with no difference between those who lived in a hotspot (-0.85, 95%CI -1.12 to -0.58) and those who did not live in a hotspot (-0.61, 95%CI -0.42 to -0.81) P=0.07. 

The prevalence of CKD in ISLHD is similar to the rates described for the rest of Australia. While 33% of CKD in our cohort resided in an area that can be classified as a hotspot, there was no statistically significant difference in the annual rate of eGFR decline when compared to a population who did not live in a hotspot. 

Kewords